US Role

The US is by far Taiwan's most important friend, and its only ally.

The relationship, forged during World War II and the Cold War, underwent its sternest test in 1979, when President Jimmy Carter ended US diplomatic recognition of Taiwan in order to concentrate on burgeoning ties with China. The US Congress, responding to the move, passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which promises to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons, and stressed that any attack by China would be considered of "grave concern" to the US.

Since then, US policy has been described as one of "strategic ambiguity", seeking to balance China's emergence as a regional power with US admiration for Taiwan's economic success and democratisation.

The US' pivotal role was most clearly shown in 1996, when China conducted provocative missile tests to try and influence Taiwan's first direct presidential election. In response, US President Bill Clinton ordered the biggest display of US military power in Asia since the Vietnam War, sending ships to the Taiwan Strait, and a clear message to Beijing.

The incident may have alerted Washington to the risk it faced of having to fight someone else's war. Two years later President Clinton pledged "three nos" - no to Taiwan independence, no to two Chinas, and no to Taiwan joining international organisations that need statehood for membership.

The administration of George W Bush has appeared more hawkish, even describing China as a "strategic competitor". But it has remained careful not to encourage Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian, warning him against any actions which risked altering the status quo.

Taiwan Flashpoint

Independence debate

While Taiwan was ruled by Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang (KMT) party, independence was not really an issue because the KMT's aim was to take back control of all China. But in the 1980s, as Taiwan introduced democracy, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to prominence, with a clearly-stated goal of independence for the island.

This stance seriously alarmed China, which saw its "one China" policy under threat. Beijing repeatedly warned that any declaration of independence by Taiwan would be a justification for war.

The DPP goal was put on hold when its candidate, Chen Shui-bian, won the 2000 presidential election. Perhaps hoping for a breakthrough with Beijing, he immediately announced that, so long as China did not use force, he would not declare independence.

But China refused to deal with President Chen, who responded by calling for - and getting passed - a referendum law. He promised not to use the law to poll people on the island's status. But its passage infuriated Beijing, who saw it as another move towards independence, and also as a further complication for persuading Taiwan to reunify.

Officially, the DPP still favours eventual independence for Taiwan, while the KMT favours eventual re-unification. Since neither outcome looks likely in the short or even medium term, it is perhaps not surprising that opinion polls suggest most Taiwanese people want things to stay as they are, with the island's ambiguous status unresolved.

Set against that, more and more people say they feel Taiwanese, rather than Chinese, suggesting the independence debate will only get fiercer.

BBC Taiwan Flashpoint 06.03.07